A global crisis requires a global vision. Now that the recovery is underway almost everywhere, a very precious analysis of the out-of-home comes to us from FCSI, the association that brings together HoReCa consultants in various countries around the world and that is an “historical” partner of Hostmilano.

Here's what Michael Jones told us:

What trends do you see in catering in the medium and long term?

It was a terribly difficult year for the restaurant operators. According to the US National Restaurant Association, restaurant revenue in America in 2020 was $ 240 billion lower than expected. A survey in April 2021 revealed that 90,000 stores remained closed. It will take time for "physical" restaurants to get back on their feet and compete with ghost kitchens, the only area that remained lively during the pandemic: Euromonitor has predicted that this market will reach 1 trillion euros by 2030, globally.

Then there is the staff problem: many employees have not returned to work and the increase in the minimum wage in the United States and the uncertainty about growth prospects discourage many operators from increasing staff. This will lead to greater automation (more robotics, AI, contactless, multifunctional equipment) in both the kitchen and the dining room.

These factors, the problems in the supply chain and the increase in commodity prices and hyperinflation brought about by Covid and, here in the UK, the additional obstacles posed by Brexit, will lead to reduced menu choice. On the plus side, this could result in less food waste. In addition, plant-based preparations will make great strides in the coming years.

Is the trend towards sustainability a fact or a fad?

I honestly think the industry passed a tipping point a few years ago when it stopped greenwashing and started putting the right emphasis on environmental issues. Because it understood that an energy efficient kitchen - or attention to food or packaging waste - saves money, as well as helping the planet. Installing machines that use less water, chemicals and energy and reducing waste is good for everyone, but the deciding factor was the economic factor.

Furthermore, the consumer market is increasingly made up of Millennials, Gen Z and Gen Y deeply concerned about environmental issues. If an operator does not behave ethically or is a bad keeper of the planet, they will not only reject him but will lobby his clientele. I believe that producers and operators are listening and addressing the issue in the right way now.

What are the biggest challenges that restaurateurs will face in the future?

The biggest challenge is to ride this storm and plan for a very different future. This is one of the most agile and inventive industries. It will survive. It will thrive. And it will continue to reinvent itself, but there is no doubt that the hard times are not over yet. There is still a need for significant long-term government support and greater weight in terms of political representation. But I am convinced that hospitality will return leaner, cleaner,  more intelligent and creative than ever.

What is the role of trade fairs today?

I believe that, at least in the short term, we will see more focused and lean physical fairs, perhaps with a reduced number of visitors, but there will be more attention to the purchasing decisions that will be made. We will continue to see virtual trade shows and events, but this is ultimately an industry of people meeting people. That's the nature of hospitality, and I for one can't wait to go back to travel and see friends and colleagues again.

At Host this year I will be interviewing a lot of people, walking through the corridors absorbing the innovations on display, but most of all I will be happy to be there because it will mean that the industry is back to fighting and is in shape again.