When will we start eating out again? All the signs point to this spring and summer, like last year, but on a more solid basis thanks to the vaccination campaigns now under way in all countries.

2020 was characterised by a boom in home deliveries: extensive use was made of the service, which now accounts for 12% of spending on out-of-the-home food services. But it has not completely made up for the fall-off in the market, which by the end of the year, say NPD estimates, was down 44% on 2019 by value.

There is a big pent-up demand to eat out at restaurants again, as was seen when establishments in areas designated as yellow reopened, although 81% want the locations to guarantee social distancing, and 58% said they would not dine there if safety measures were not of a high enough standard.

So recovery in 2021 is both desirable and inevitable. “Away-from-home eating will grow again,” says Matteo Figura, head of the Foodservice divisions at NPD, “but the real recovery will come in 2022, when we will see a return to pre-crisis levels.”

NPD’s forecasts show a market that will grow in 2021, driven by an increase in spending thanks to a return to more soundly structured opportunities to eat out. Growth rates of above 30% are expected in numbers of diners and amounts spent, also taking account of closures, but unfortunately these will not cover the market losses, which by year end will be 44% down on 2019.

There are big opportunities on the horizon, but they will need to be handled with care: “The challenge, for anyone operating in this sector,” Figura goes on, “will be knowing how to get through the dark days of this winter, in both the figurative and literal senses. Consumption will start picking up again in the spring, but it will be necessary to think about the world in an entirely different way, one in which people are taking a whole new approach to work, free time and city spaces. The revolution will result in consumers having new needs also in how they eat out.”

David Portalatin, vice president and industry advisor on food for NPD Usa, identifies five reasons why the away-from-home eating industry will continue to do well. Firstly, he points to the resilience of restaurant chains with the right format, capable of offering good value for money on quality food. Then, there is the availability of off-premises restaurant occasions (carry-out, drive-thru or delivery), which he believes will continue this year. Thirdly, digital orders for pick-up will be a growth engine, because in the USA carry-out and drive-thru have eight times more traffic volume than delivery. The continuing demand for chicken, pizza and burgers is a fourth factor: these foods need to be packaged “in convenient family meat bundles that can be delivered or picked-up for an at-home dinner solution will further define next year’s winners”. And finally, quality is an essential element: “to entice someone to part with their hard-earned dollar in 2021, the food experience and quality better be worth it”, he says. But what makes him so sure of all this? “The restaurant industry is a vibrant, creative community of entrepreneurs, and they will take advantage of empty spaces, buy a food truck, or leverage technology to launch a virtual brand. We’ll likely have a net reduction in total restaurant unit counts in 2021, but the next superstar concept is already well into the planning phase.”